Facts and figures
Using component driven estimating, I under-estimate by a times 4 factor; a proof of concept before contracting doesn’t help.
Using story driven estimating, I over-estimated two iterations by 30%.
Pragma
1. I estimated two iterations using story driven development.
2. I am experimenting with a new framework
3. I am targetting a business domain I know well.
4. I made sure to estimate very small stories on a short event horizon.
Premisses
1. Component models afford and encourage glossing over interactions.
2. Functional models afford glossing over unused components. Logical dependencies constrain functional models to minimally correct component models.
Hypothesis
Story/Case/Interaction/Feature driven estimating is overall more acccurate than component driven estimating.
This post didn’t start off with facts, figures, premisses or a hypothesis. It would appear that stories, broken down into small (<0.5 day) tasks, afford better estimating than component analysis – if you’re in no reading mood, that’s all you need to know. I’m off rambling.
OK. I used to estimate projects using component analysis. This is how it works:
- Estimate each component as derived from requirements; do not include any correction factor.
- Sum and multiply by 4.
Recently, I moved to story based estimating – this is what happened:
- Broke down each story into 3 or 4 tasks. Each story was minimally small, representing an atomic value increment.
- Estimated each task separately.
- Summed and applied no correction factor (no prior iteration allowing to evaluate velocity).
It may be worth noting that story breakdowns are highly dependant on prior stories (if you shuffle your stories on the timeline, your story estimates are void, although your task estimates may still be accurate).
What happened?
Plato
My first encounter with object programming was an epiphany. Object modeling promised clarity, simplicity and re-use – so much so that I still find it difficult at times to come to terms with the conceptual overhead involved in teaching object programming versus scripting.
As essential models, objects promise clear, reusable encapsulations. Component driven estimating relies on high level separation and breaks into perspectives. From there, two attractions:
- Object modeling must be comprehensive. Modelling objects, we are thinking about potential. Uses and interactions far beyond business logic. We are modeling ahead of business goals.
- Object modeling must be pure. Modelling objects, we can’t afford letting arbitrary considerations taint our models.
I believed in objects long enough not to feel nostalgic. Don’t be fooled:
- You’re not gonna need it (however many times you will pay for it). However you believe your objects will pass the test of time, comprehensive objects afford more than is required.
A friend of mine will always order the same dish at every Asian restaurant we go (Thai, Chinese, Indian, … ). Choice means little more than overhead in finding what you really need once your objects enter the maintenance cycle. - No services. Platonic models don’t willingly endorse your business logic – If you try to reach the essence of your model, you will neglect your components (contr)actual uses and, like me, will reach meta-stasis, balancing ‘complete‘ objects (just need to fill in the blanks…) against a self-sustainable tasklist (an endless list of use cases)(1)
80/20?
80% of functionality (yes… the 80% your customers won’t need) is provided by objects – Pure, comprehensive models that do not contribute to your business logic. Thinking, modeling and estimating objects, we’re not even covering the 20% functionality that we contracted for. Worse, that 20% will account for 75% of actual development and maintenance time given complex dependencies woven into ‘pure’ representations
Aristotle
Down to Elysian fields, story driven estimating doesn’t suggest we entirely relinquish either objects or component analysis. Accurately, stories require modeling shadows; stories cut across layered architectures, grudgingly yield pragmatic models and hold no romantic promises to posterity. However:
- Stories require minimal object models. While essential (existentialist?) models do not require stories, stories require actors and props. For this reason, stories outline necessities driven by your business logic.
- Stories require percolation. Integration is all to stories, while component analysis comes second.
F* places story modeling at the heart of software architecture, but I won’t ascribe a short term incidental success in estimating to experimenting with a new pattern (however superficially relevant).
I’ll write off over-estimating to a long standing habit of pessimism – a stigma of pre-romantic beliefs in hidden essences, quickly glimpsed while designing pure abstractions, quickly lost as contractual requirements take over, driving the patching, deconstruction, scarification and disintegration of domain objects into business logic.
I’ll be linking Scylla and Charybdis when I have a moment (finally, not an obvious choice but could do for a nice read and the imagery is a random treat).
(1)From a neo-platonician perspective, I even find it hard to shake off unease while writing notifications for model objects – but why do object languages like Java not provide modifiers for making states and behaviours observable? Observer patterns are cumbersome combined with strong typing; shouldn’t this stuff be implicit to implementations?.